FARGO — The smoldering coronavirus spread is creeping up in North Dakota but is unlikely to burst into another major conflagration of cases because many people have some level of immunity from vaccination or natural infection, experts say.
Throughout the United States, COVID-19 infections have been increasing, with hospitalizations up 14.3% over the past week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But the trend so far is more subdued in
North Dakota, which had three weekly reported COVID-19 hospital cases as of Friday, Aug. 18, and 197 weekly positive cases
. The week earlier, one hospitalization and 115 positive cases were reported.
Public health officials caution, however, that the spread of cases is largely invisible because few test results are reported, and cases in North Dakota have been gradually rising.
“Testing is down, so reporting is down,” said Kirby Kruger, director of disease prevention at the North Dakota Department of Health and Human Services.
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“It really is trending upward,” he added. “We’ve been trending upward since the end of June. That indicates that viral activity is increasing.”
Reported weekly COVID-19 infections, which do not include at-home test results, dropped to 44 on June 29, the lowest level since late March of 2020, when the pandemic started in North Dakota.
Hospitalizations, a key indicator that is reliably reported, so far remain subdued.
“Those hospitalizations are remaining low, and that’s encouraging,” Kruger said.
North Dakota is unlikely to see another spike like the peak in late January of 2022 during the wave of cases from the Omicron variant, when reported cases reached an all-time high of 15,938 active infections, Kruger said.
“We have a lot of protection in our population now that we didn’t have when this first emerged,” since many people have been vaccinated, infected or both, he said.
Still, the virus continues to mutate into variants that spread more rapidly, and some people suffer severe illness, so people should not let down their guard, Kruger said.
“This virus is still here and it’s still circulating now with severe illness for some,” he said. “So we don’t want to ignore this.”
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Infectious disease specialists at Essentia Health and Sanford Health in Fargo agreed the population has significant protection from prior vaccination or natural infection but caution that cases are likely to increase as people spend more time indoors in the fall and winter.
“The peaks and troughs are significantly lower,” said Dr. Drubert Guerrero, an infectious disease specialist at Sanford. “At this time, there’s no reason to be alarmed.”
In fall and winter, there likely will be a slight increase in COVID-19 infections, he said.
Hospitalizations for COVID-19 have remained low at both Sanford and Essentia. Sanford no longer tracks COVID-19 hospital trends, and Dr. Bertha Ayi, an infectious disease specialist at Essentia, said COVID-19 hospitalizations are “remarkably down,” adding, “I haven’t seen a COVID case in months.”
Generally, transmission levels are low in North Dakota, Ayi said.
Looking ahead to fall and winter, “I’m optimistic that it won’t be a big issue,” she said. “But people should be sure to get vaccinated” and maintain good indoor ventilation whenever possible and take other precautions, such as wearing masks if risk levels are high.
New vaccines formulated for the most prevalent strains now circulating are expected to be available in late September or early October, and people should get booster doses, Ayi, Guerrero and Kruger said.
“It’s a good time to get updated this fall,” Guerrero said. “COVID is still here. It’s still causing a lot of illness, and there is some mortality associated with it.”
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Fortunately, vaccines and medicines, including antiviral medications, help reduce severe illness, he said, but people have to remain mindful that the coronavirus is circulating.
“We now have to live in a post-pandemic environment,” and people must stay vigilant, Guerrero said.
North Dakota health officials stopped monitoring coronavirus levels in municipal wastewater in December 2022, Kruger said.
North Dakota’s health laboratory has the ability to do the analysis, and health officials are determining whether communities are interested in collecting samples. So far, no cities seem eager to participate.
“There isn’t a lot of interest in COVID in general right now,” Kruger said.